Rhino Numbers and Census

[Richprins]

One simply cannot trust the figures for Kruger until a proper transparent census. I would be surprised if there are 1000 white rhino left.

[Lisbeth]

The rhinos are hiding under the trees when they are trying to count them

[Lisbeth]

World Rhino Day: Kruger National Park population numbers may have dropped to lowest yet

By Ethan van Diemen• 22 September 2021


Investigative journalist, photographer and travel writer Don Pinnock. | Senior Manager for Wildlife Programme/Africa Rhino Lead at WWF South Africa, Dr Jo Shaw. | Managing Executive responsible for Conservation Services at South African National Parks, Dr Luthando Dziba. (Photos: Supplied) | A rhino in Johannesburg. (Photo: EPA-EFE/Kim Ludbrook)

In a Daily Maverick webinar on Wednesday, Dr Luthando Dziba, the new CEO of South African National Parks, said there may be fewer than 3,000 rhinos in the Kruger Park for the first time – despite the park authority spending millions on rhino protection.

On Wednesday, in conversation with investigative journalist Dr Don Pinnock, Dr Luthando Dziba – the new CEO of South African National Parks (SANParks) – not only confirmed that the country’s rhino population has declined by nearly two-thirds over the past decade but said that there may now be fewer than 3,000 in the Kruger National Park for the first time.

What, then, is the state of the poaching criminal underworld? Are bent park officials implicated? Can poaching be stopped? Are rhinos on the road to extinction in the wild? What are the solutions? These and other questions were put to Dziba as well as Dr Jo Shaw, the Africa Rhino Lead at WWF South Africa by Pinnock in the webinar hosted by Daily Maverick.

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Save The Rhino says the current rhino poaching crisis began in 2008, with increasing numbers of rhino killed for their horn throughout Africa until 2015… “[Poaching] numbers have decreased across the continent since the peak of 1,349 in 2015.”

The organisation says that “South Africa holds the majority of the world’s rhinos and has been the country hit hardest by poaching criminals, with more than 1,000 rhinos killed each year between 2013 and 2017.”


Graphic: Emma Pereira

Referring to a graph of rhino poaching in South Africa and Zimbabwe since 1984, Pinnock showed poaching averaged below 200 dead rhinos annually from 1984 to 1994 in Zimbabwe. In South Africa, there were few reports of rhinos being poached from 1994 to 2007, after which poaching exploded to a peak of 1,349 rhinos killed in 2015.

But why were the nineties marked by such low rates of poaching? It was argued that Section 8 of the Fishermen’s Protective Act in the US – also known as the Pelly Amendment – was the cause of the relative dip in poaching numbers observed in the nineties. This authorised the US president to limit the importation of any products from a country whose nationals were engaging in trade that diminishes the effectiveness of international conservation of endangered or threatened species.

It resulted in a universal ban on trade in rhino horn – even in China. With trade loopholes firmly shut and little or no demand for rhino horn, rhino numbers in Africa began increasing.

Then around 2003, mainly Vietnamese cartels found a loophole through legitimate hunting. South Africa was selling over 1,000 legal rhino hunts directly to Vietnamese criminals and East European intermediaries, even using local Asian prostitutes as “hunters”. Crime syndicates now had in their possession around 1,000 legal CITES rhino horn permits which they used to launder poached rhino horn into Asian markets. It kicked off demand in Asia and poaching went through the roof.



Pinnock said South Africa created loopholes that were exploited by criminal syndicates through licensing of hunting and legalising internal trade, but only shutting down of all rhino horn trade, removing loopholes and stopping mixed messaging – backed up by initiatives like the Pelly Amendment – would bring down poaching.

Dziba said, “I think another way of looking at the alarming stats… is the fact that it is possible to actually do something to basically restore the species but I think it is important to know what needs to be done to basically protect rhino in the wild.”

“We might have created loopholes… in basically legalising hunting and giving permits to international hunters and it is possible, but I think right now within the context of national parks, for instance, there has never been hunting in national parks. We are experiencing the brunt of the scourge of poaching and if you look at Kruger for instance, where our largest white rhino population is at, we experience some of the most severe poaching.”

Asked what the rhino numbers in the Kruger were, Dziba said the rhino population has declined by almost 70% over the past 10 years. “This is … because of relentless poaching. We have officially released the numbers up until the 2019/2020 reporting period where basically we had 3,500 rhino.”


Provincial and national breakdown of poaching for 2020 in comparison to 2019 (Source: DFFE)

Pressed on what the latest estimate for the total rhino population is, Dziba said they suspect that, possibly for the first time, there were fewer than 3,000 rhino in the Kruger National Park, which was a huge concern.

On a typical day, Dziba explained, there might be three to six incursions into the Kruger National Park detected by their rangers. “Basically every day, rangers are encountering poachers in the bush,” he said.

“If you look just at the quantum of funding we are spending in a place like Kruger National Park, which is well in excess of R200-million on basically ranger services and anti-poaching, one sees that there is a lot of investment that we are making in anti-poaching but it’s still not enough if you look at the number of animals that are poached every year. I mean right now, we are around 200-plus animals as of last year.”

Shaw, who co-authored an article published by Daily Maverick on Wednesday, argued that saving rhinos is a litmus test for tackling organised crime and corruption in South Africa. That article notes that since 2010, 9,885 rhinos have been killed across Africa.

It says poaching in South Africa peaked in 2014 – the worst year on record – at 1,215 incidents. “Last year, 394 rhinos were killed by poachers in South Africa, the lowest figure since 2010, attributed in a large part to Covid-19 lockdowns and travel restrictions. But as restrictions ease, poaching incidents are on the rise and in the first six months of this year, 294 rhinos were poached.”

In the webinar, Shaw said, “Corruption is the oil that smoothes the organised crime networks at every level from inside the park to moving the horn to the airport to exporting the horn at the airport level. There are people on the inside and what is concerning is the level of sophistication at which the people are being entrapped or threatened or pulled into some of these networks. The networks reach all the way across from the park to the export point to the consumer country.”

Asked what is wrong with the justice system in failing to jail an infamous alleged poacher, Shaw said part of the problem is that people still see rhino poaching as the death of a rhino and not as a form of organised syndicated crime. “The fact that the commodity being traded comes from wildlife doesn’t really matter.”

“This needs to be addressed across borders, across agencies as syndicated organised crime and I think that if we were working on it at that level and bringing all the tools to bear so if we start hitting these guys where it hurts using… tracking the financial flows, using asset forfeiture. Perhaps if we recognised the crime as working at that level of severity we might have more impact.” OBP/DM

[Richprins]

Dziba said they suspect that, possibly for the first time, there were fewer than 3,000 rhino in the Kruger National Park

Well stop suspecting and do a proper census!!

[Lisbeth]

Kruger rhino poaching update: 75% population reduction in 10 years

Posted on January 20, 2022 by Team Africa Geographic in the NEWS DESK post series.



Despite back-breaking work from a dedicated and passionate SANParks team, Kruger National Park rhino populations have continued to plummet – as per the latest population count from 2020. Recently published research estimates that there are about 2,607 white rhinos remaining in the Kruger National Park, while black rhinos are estimated to number just 202. This represents a population decline of 75% for white rhinos since 2011 (from 10,621) and 51% for black rhino since 2013 (from 415).





The research, compiled by SANParks officials, analyses the impact of COVID-19 on poaching rates compared to trends observed in previous years. In summary:

• Population estimates in a massive area such as Kruger carry inherent uncertainty. Thus, white rhinos could number between 2,475 and 2,752, while black rhino populations could be as low as 172 or as high as 237. The estimates for this and previous years’ population numbers are the midpoint between the low and high numbers.

• The actual black rhino population size may be higher due to their preference for dense habitat and tendency for surveys to underestimate their numbers.

• These population estimates apply to the year 2020 – the process of actively counting the rhino (by air), analysing the data, and subjecting the results to scientific scrutiny takes time, and there is an inevitable lag period.

• During the height of the COVID-19 government-imposed “hard” lockdown, there was a significant reduction in poaching: 79.4%

• However, these benefits were lost as restrictions were lifted. “The easing of restriction resulted in a significantly higher number of observed poaching incidences per day during 2020 compared to that predicted for the same period by trends from 2017 to 2019. The result indicates that year-to-year poaching rates during 2020 were not significantly lower than those in previous years…” (Ferreira et al., 2021).This contradicts previous statements by the Department of Environment, Forestry and Fisheries, claiming that poaching incidents in Kruger reduced by half in the first half of 2020.

• The recruitment rates (the number of calves born that survive the year) for both species were at their lowest since 2013. This contradicts previous statements by the Department of Environment, Forestry and Fisheries, claiming that poaching incidents in Kruger reduced by half in the first half of 2020.

• The recruitment rates (the number of calves born that survive the year) for both species were at their lowest since 2013.

PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RESOURCES

1. While the SANParks Annual Report for 2020/2021 is not yet accessible to the public, the most recent available figures were published in the African Journal of Wildlife Research and are publicly available through a paywall here.
2. Our report of this time last year: Kruger rhino populations plummet – latest official stats
3. The 2019 stats are available on page 96 of the 2019/2020 SANParks Annual Report: download.
4. The 2018 stats are available on page 101 of the 2018/2019 SANParks Annual Report: download.
5. Prior year stats are available here: white rhinos and black rhinos.

[Richprins]

I doubt that there are 1000 rhino of all types left in Greater Kruger...

[Lisbeth]

Latest rhino poaching statistics are beyond alarming: We are facing annihilation of the species

By Dave Bryant | 13 Feb 2022 2
Dave Bryant is the DA’s Shadow Minister of Environment, Forestry and Fisheries.

The reality is that rhino numbers in SANParks reserves have decreased by 75% over the past 10 years. In a few years’ time, private reserve owners may well be guarding the only remaining rhinos in the country.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Barbara Creecy, Minister of Environment, Forestry and Fisheries, recently released the latest rhino poaching statistics. The stats claim that poaching in South African National Parks (SANParks) reserves has decreased.

While the DA has nothing but praise for the efforts of our brave rangers and anti-poaching teams who have worked so hard to stem the poaching, the reality regarding rhino poaching numbers is far bleaker than what is being alleged.

The reality is that rhino numbers in SANParks reserves have decreased by 75% over the past 10 years. The most likely reason that the poaching numbers in SANParks reserves appear to be slightly lower on the raw data is simply because the overall numbers of rhinos are continuing to drop.

If one compares the population with the incidents of rhino poaching in SANParks reserves, there is an average increase in poaching and not a decrease as alleged. SANParks reported that 247 rhinos out of approximately 3,500 remaining wild rhinos were poached in 2020, which works out to 7% of the wild rhino population. The numbers for the middle of 2021 indicate that 209 wild rhinos were poached out of a population of +-2,800, which is 7.5% of the remaining wild rhino population.

SANParks is still unable to adequately account for the decline in wild rhino numbers from 3,500 to 2,800 in one year. If one subtracts the 247 rhinos poached that year, there are still approximately 400 rhinos missing with no explanation given. These rhinos cannot simply disappear.

It is also concerning that no estimate of rhino numbers is provided for the end of 2021. There are unofficial estimates of fewer than 2,000 rhino in SANParks reserves at present and the DA calls on SANParks to provide the latest estimates as soon as possible to combat the growing concern and uncertainty.

The efforts of our brave rangers must be applauded and many of them put their lives on the line every day to protect our wildlife. Unfortunately, the SANParks anti-poaching teams will continue to be on the back foot while 82 ranger posts remain unfilled. These posts should be filled as a matter of urgency, especially considering the desperation for jobs from surrounding rural communities.

SANParks senior management have admitted that they are completely overstretched and do not have the resources at their disposal to properly protect their animals. It is alleged that rangers are poorly paid and that their career progression is uncertain. The financial hardship and low morale has sadly led to some SANParks staff being lured into working with poaching syndicates. The DA continues to call for the proper implementation of polygraph testing for SANParks staff to disincentivise rangers from working with poachers.

As the number of rhinos in SANParks reserves continues to decline, poachers are now becoming ever more desperate and targeting private rhino reserves. The owners of these reserves have traditionally been far more successful than SANParks in protecting their rhinos, but it appears that poachers are now managing to break through their defences.

Many of the private reserve owners feel that they have been left out of the discussion around rhinos in South Africa and would like to have a seat at the table to raise their concerns and share their expertise and ideas. The minister must make more of an effort to meet with the owners of private rhino reserves on a regular basis. In a few years’ time they may well be guarding the only remaining rhinos in the country.

Time is sadly running out for our rhinos. We must now face up to the reality that the ANC’s poor administration of SANParks over many years has resulted in the ongoing annihilation of both black and white rhinos at the hands of international poaching syndicates.

We must now act fast, put egos aside and get all stakeholders together to urgently look into all possible ways that we can work together to save these majestic animals before they are gone forever. DM

[Richprins]

Very good article, and entirely correct. The fact is that SP, especially Kruger, have no real idea of how many rhino are left.

The financial hardship and low morale has sadly led to some SANParks staff being lured into working with poaching syndicates

This is a copy of the other DM article, and is false. The staff that poach do so out of greed, and have good salaries and benefits, end of story.

[Lisbeth]

They continue to repeat that the rangers have a low salary, but as per Richprins they are public servants and those are not underpaid for sure.

[Lisbeth]

The denial and spin continues ...

Simon Espley – CEO | 22.02.2022

South Africa's Minister of the Environment - Barbara Creecy - hosted this CRINGEWORTHY scripted 'interview' a few days ago, where she again heralded the drop in rhino poaching numbers as a 'step-change in anti-poaching activities. However, again she ignored the primary reason for the reduced poaching - the 75% plummet in Kruger rhino populations over the last 10 years.

BUT this time, she went one step further - claiming a 'shift in poaching to private reserves' and suggesting that government anti-poaching units were doing so well that they could now educate private landowners. Chokes on his breakfast cereal. The poaching numbers from 2021 suggest that she is either misinformed or intentionally DEFLECTING focus from the facts. 451 rhinos were poached last year, of which +/- 320 were from government reserves/parks.

My network suggests that about 1,500 Kruger rhinos remain (2020 estimate was 2,809) - from 11,026 a decade ago.

Perhaps anti-poaching funding is due for renewal, and this was a publicity stunt? It's time for our minister to extract ground-level info and shift from spin doctoring to factual accuracy. She is blessed with hard-working, loyal staff in the reserves - and yet she ignores their input. She should address the REAL ISSUES that hamper efforts to save rhinos - like endemic corruption at all levels of government.

Keep the passion
Simon Espley – CEO