Elephant Numbers in South Africa

[Dindingwe]

Hi,

Interesting study, that I read fast, I will read it again more carefuly.

As for me, I heard some years ago, at a time when I lived in Zimbabwe, that the ideal density for Elephant was only 1 per km² or less. So the ideal number of Elephant for Hwange NP for example is 15.000 but there were 45.000 when I was there, so hugely overpopulated, and it had negative impacts on vegetation and other herbivores, as we see it in the Kruger where artificial waterholes were created and attracted Elephants.

So, as Okie - without being an idiot - I am not fully convinced by the figures given. But I reckognize that the ideal population must depend on each park, and it can vary much if the park is in an arid zone with scarce vegetation or in a more humid environment (1 per km² was perhaps specific to Hwange ?). And in an untouched system, the Elephants do not remain always in a limited area as a national park, but should move according to the food supply, hence allowing the vegetation to regenerate.

[Ginzy]

Hi

According to the paper, the ecological benchmark density for Hwange is 1.9 (it already is noted as being overpopulated at 2.3), where the density for Kruger is 2.5 per km^2 - indeed you are right that it varies by park. Etosha for example, is predicted to be able to only support 0.2 per km^2, and Gorongosa (an unbelievably interesting case study in terms of what has been happening to this eden), almost 3/km^2.

Of course an important point to bring up, is the effect of the western and southern boundary fences...

[Flutterby]

Hi Ginzy,

Interesting report...thank you.

[Richprins]

if we have any mammal ecologists on the forum I would love to hear their perspective

Can we send it on to some scientific contacts, Ginzy? Are you involved with the creation of the final study yourself?

[Dzombo]

An interesting read.

But from my non-scientific personal observations.
Not sure if those elephant carrying capacity numbers in Kruger are feasible.
If one looks at the extensive damage to large trees etc, one would think that the limit has been reached. I am thinking particularly along the H1-2 in the Leeupan area as just one example.

I have had a discussion with a former senior ranger who during our chat mentioned that even at current capacity there are too many elephants in Kruger.

And I have a client who has a share in a private reserve on the western boundary of Kruger. He has also mentioned that they have had extensive elephant damage to the vegetation on their property.

[Ginzy]

if we have any mammal ecologists on the forum I would love to hear their perspective

Can we send it on to some scientific contacts, Ginzy? Are you involved with the creation of the final study yourself?

Unfortunately I am not - just a casual interested individual..let's send it on onto some scientific contacts indeed

[Richprins]

Ok sent. It takes a long time sometimes, though...

[Richprins]

Hi Richprins

Thanks!

I say 'come right' as its still pretty devastated following the civil war. Land mines have been cleared, and the fence between it and the north-eastern border for 50km has been removed for a few years now - but animal numbers are drastically low and need to recover (just 1000 elephants for example in an area half the size of Kruger). There are still quite a few communities along the rivers which may disturb the process (resettlement is a thorny issue of course)..and the spectre of poaching always looms.

The dream is one day to be able to drive across the border to enjoy the same densities as we see in KNP, continuing our northern lowveld voyages.

We have quite close contact with the Moz side, and the big problem there is water. There are some resident ellies now, but the majority return to Kruger once the pans and pools dry up. Only the Shingwedzi and Olifants keep water throughout, but the humans live next to the latter. and the former seems to be "full" now.

[Ginzy]

Ok sent. It takes a long time sometimes, though...

Eagerly awaiting feedback!

[Ginzy]

Hi Richprins

Thanks!

I say 'come right' as its still pretty devastated following the civil war. Land mines have been cleared, and the fence between it and the north-eastern border for 50km has been removed for a few years now - but animal numbers are drastically low and need to recover (just 1000 elephants for example in an area half the size of Kruger). There are still quite a few communities along the rivers which may disturb the process (resettlement is a thorny issue of course)..and the spectre of poaching always looms.

The dream is one day to be able to drive across the border to enjoy the same densities as we see in KNP, continuing our northern lowveld voyages.

We have quite close contact with the Moz side, and the big problem there is water. There are some resident ellies now, but the majority return to Kruger once the pans and pools dry up. Only the Shingwedzi and Olifants keep water throughout, but the humans live next to the latter. and the former seems to be "full" now.

Interesting to hear morw what they have to say Richprins

Incidentally, this paper focused on distance from water as one of its 3 significant explanatory variables (% of a park that is 12 km from water during the dry season) which has a very high impact on ecological density on elephant. Accordingly, 98% of Kruger is within 12 km from a water source, and 91% of the Mozambique side is - of course the suitability of the Limpopo and Olifants for ellies with humans I assume would make a big diference...
It would also be really interesting to see if migratory patterns can be reproduced, it looks like this may be already happening to an extent based on these observations?