Kruger Drought/Dry Seasons and Dam Levels

[Flutterby]

How the drought is affecting the Kruger National Park

2016-09-08 20:04
Wim Pretorius, News24

Johannesburg - The current drought has a stranglehold on the Kruger National Park, but not all the effects are negative, a SANParks official has said.

Drought was a natural and important phenomenon with long and short-term effects, SANParks programme manager in fire ecology and biogeochemistry, Navashni Govender, said.

The current drought had drastically reduced dam levels and forced water restrictions around the country. It was being compared to the worst on record in the country (1991/92).

“Some areas of the Kruger National Park have been hit worse than in 1991/92,” Govender said.

There had been more days where the temperature had exceeded 40°C than in 1991/92 and rivers had seen less water flow.

Biggest concern

One of the biggest concerns for park officials was forage - the food available to animals.

“Different species experience drought differently. Some predators love the drought, so it should be noted that our animal range is not affected equally.”

Grazers were the worst affected, and mixed feeders like impala or kudu, less so.

Buffalo were usually heavily affected. Since 1970 their numbers had increased. Following the droughts in 1981 and 1991/92, their numbers fell dramatically. Since then their population had recovered to the highest levels yet seen.

The park had over 7 500 hippo, the highest number in the park’s history. This meant there were too many hippos in small pools.

While the park had artificial water points, SANParks had closed many of them. The lack of water and increasing hippo population was contributing to the formation of blue-green algae, which could poison some animals.

It was predicted that the central part of the park would be the worst affected because it had received the least rain and had the greatest numbers of animals.

The southern area of the park had received more rainfall, which could see more animals moving there.

The options available to SANParks included:

• Managing artificial water points;
• Implementing water-saving measures and;
• Herbivore removal programs.

Removal programmes were used for reasons including preventing the spread of diseases.

[nan]

so Impala, Kudu, Buffalo, Hippo no need to be killed

• Managing artificial water points;

there is "explosive" news

[Flutterby]

Weather forecast for Southern Africa predicts good rainfall this season

BY: ADMIRE NDHLOVU
13 SEP 2016

The forecast for the 2016/17 cropping season in Southern Africa indicates that most parts of the region can expect adequate rainfall after two successive years of debilitating droughts.

In the period October to December most of the region is expected to receive a high amount of rain, characterised as “normal to above normal” rainfall, and this is expected to continue in most parts of the region in January to March 2017, according to a statement by the 20th Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-20).

However, the northern part of the region can expect “normal to below normal” rainfall at the beginning and end of this period, comprising northernmost Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), northern Angola, most of Tanzania, northern Mozambique, the island states of Seychelles and eastern Madagascar.

The period November to January may see a reduction in rainfall in some parts of the region, including western Botswana, eastern DRC, northern Mozambique, western Zambia, and southern Tanzania. It is during this period that the region often experiences a dry spell, but the coming season is expected to be characterised by a short dry spell this season in most parts of the region.

The predicted rainfall patterns are presented with maps that show the entire SADC region receiving normal to above normal rainfall during the period December 2016 to February 2017, with the exception of eastern Tanzania and eastern Madagascar.

During the period of January to March 2017, the rainfall will decrease in the northern part of the region, as well as the southern parts of Zimbabwe and Mozambique, eastern Botswana, northern and central South Africa.

The forecast was formulated by climate scientists from the National Meteorological and/or Hydrological Services in the 15 Member States of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the SADC Climate Services Centre, with additional inputs from other global climate prediction centres.

Their statement notes that the outlook is relevant only to seasonal time scales and relatively large areas and may not fully account for all local and intra-seasonal factors that influence climate variability, which can be interpreted and updated by national meteorological and hydrological services.

SARCOF meets every year in August to review the rainfall season in SADC, and discuss the potential impacts of the consensus seasonal climate outlook on other socio-economic sectors including disaster risk management, food security, health, water resources and hydropower management.

From El Niño to La Niña
The statement from climate scientists said they “took into account oceanic and atmospheric factors that influence our climate over the SADC region. In particular, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is foreseen to be shifting from the warm, through neutral to cold phase, also referred to as La Niña, during the bulk of the rainfall season.”

Many regions of the global tropics and sub-tropics exhibit climate anomalies that correlate with the El Niño Southern Oscillation, a naturally occurring phenomenon that involves fluctuating ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific.

In Southern Africa, an El Niño event is characterised by drought while La Niña is associated with wet conditions and floods. While increased soil moisture is expected to improve crop productivity, there is a risk of flooding that could destroy crops and impact on food security. Damage to infrastructure is possible. Increased incidences of malaria and waterborne diseases are often associated with higher rainfall.

Mozambique, for example, faces risks of cyclone landfalls due to increased tropical cyclones forming in the Mozambique Channel, with a possibility of displacement of people.

Data and information-sharing systems
Governments in the region are taking proactive measures to prepare for the change in the rainfall patterns and its impact on livelihoods and economic sectors.

River Basin organisations such as the Zambezi Watercourse Commission, Limpopo Watercourse Commission and Orange-Senqu River Commission are strengthening data and information sharing, which is crucial for early warning and preparedness, particularly in the case of floods. The commissions have already set up data and information-sharing systems.

At a regional level, the SADC Climate Services Centre is establishing a Climate Data Processing Centre to provide timely early warning information such as flood and drought potential prediction, onset of rainy season, as well as climate advisories and information. These are critical in the development of effective drought and flood warning systems to maximize the opportunity for the implementation of response strategies aimed at enhancing the safety of life and property and reducing avoidable flood damage.

Climate events such as El Niño and La Niña are a slowly evolving phenomenon, whose peak can be predicted months in advance. Providing early advice and warning can help to reduce vulnerability to the impacts.

The 20th SARCOF meeting held on 24-26 August was hosted by the Meteorological Services of Zimbabwe. sardc.net

Southern African News Features offers a reliable source of regional information and analysis on the Southern African Development Community, and is provided as a service to the SADC region.

[Lisbeth]

It must be the only region in the world, where weather can be predicted 3/5 months ahead Nonetheless I hope that they are right

[Richprins]

Looks like a spot of rain at Satara?

https://www.sanparks.org/webcams/cams.php?cam=satara

[Flutterby]

Read a lot of posts on FB that it poured with rain all night in the south of the park!!

[Lisbeth]

[Alf]

Very good news

[nan]

good news

but not for the convicts

[Dzombo]

Read a lot of posts on FB that it poured with rain all night in the south of the park!!

How far north did the rain get to??