Rhino Numbers and Census

[Richprins]

How Many White Rhinos are there Really in Kruger?

Thu Mar 15, 2012

This thread has nothing directly to do with the current poaching crisis, but is rather the result of a years old questioning of Sanparks' ESTIMATES regarding the normal population trends, and more specifically the grand total of said species in KNP.

Around 2009/10, when figures of the sale of rhino from Skukuza to private owners rocketed to between 300 and 400 animals annually, questions were asked as to the feasibility of the 15 000 population figure used by Kruger to justify the extraction of surplus animals.

Up until the 1990's, Kruger had used an annual fixed-wing aerial census method aimed at covering the entire Park using identical yearly "transects" - lines flown at low level using light aircraft filled with spotters during the dry season, and repeated year after year.

The method worked well, with the estimated margin for error for WR specifically estimated at only 5%.

Since then, however, Kruger has used a highly complicated modern statististical system to estimate mammal numbers, using random aerial sampling linked to various vegetation zones etc. It is highly complicated, to repeat, and more info will be forthcoming later...but only around 15% of the Park is actually aerially surveyed.

Using simpler trending algorythms from the old reliable totals, all experts/conservationists/veterans I have polled over the last years have maintained that there can be no more than 11 000 White rhino in Kruger, with the average estimate being around 9000. These figures represent simple natural increases, and DISREGARD annual rhino sales and the effect of poaching, so one can draw one's own conclusions.

It must be said that the Southern Section may have been APPROACHING saturation point for WR numbers in 2009/10, but that is a subject for conjecture.

[Flutterby]

Rhino horn gangs can ‘forfeit’ bail

June 20 2012 at 11:55am
By Yogas Nair

Rhino poaching syndicates had so much money they could afford to forfeit any amount of bail set by courts when their members were arrested, a policeman told a court on Tuesday.

Warrant Officer Jean Pierre Roux also testified that a Zululand man was the link between rhino poachers in KwaZulu-Natal and Chinese buyers who allegedly export the horns to the Far East.

Roux opposed bail for Vusi Mashaba, 40, of Zululand, and four foreigners who were arrested recently for dealing in rhino horn.

Mashaba appeared in the Germiston Magistrate’s Court, along with three Chinese nationals – Ke Sum, 29, his wife, Xiaju Chen, also 29, and Liu Zihou, 34 – as well as Malawian Harrison Noah, 26.

The bail application was adjourned to next week for an interpreter.

In his affidavit, Roux said the accused were arrested in Bedfordview and were found in possession of two rhino horns, weighing 10kg, five large elephant tusks and two leopard skins – all from animals on South Africa’s list of threatened or protected species.

“The suspects had received the horns from Mashaba and were in the process of sawing the horns into smaller pieces when arrested,” he said in the affidavit. “Mashaba was involved with the transporting and delivering of the rhino horns to the three Chinese suspects. He was involved with various other transactions regarding rhino horn. He is the middleman between the rhino poachers in KwaZulu-Natal and the Chinese buyers who export the horns to the East.”

Roux said if released on bail, there was a likelihood the accused would commit the same offence again, would attempt to evade trial, intimidate witnesses or try to conceal or destroy evidence.

The accused were part of a group involved in the illegal dealing of protected and specially protected game, he said.

According to statistics, Roux said that to date, 220 rhino had been poached this year compared to 83 in 2008 and 122 in 2009.

He said syndicates from the Far East were working with locals and foreigners to poach rhinos and export horns to Vietnam and China.

“These syndicates make a huge profit from the illegal sale of the horns. The two horns in question could be sold for about R5 million.”

Roux said the syndicates also had the money to pay the bail and legal fees.

“The syndicates, who usually pay the bail, fines and legal costs of their members, make a huge profit and can afford to forfeit any amount of bail the court may determine.”

He said there was still a lot of work outstanding in the investigation, including DNA and forensic results on the seized goods.

Two other foreigners, Chu Duc Gu Lit, 22, and Nauyen Dang Khahn, 24, of Vietnam, who were arrested during a second sting operation at the Midrand Golfing Estate, are still in custody.

They were found in possession of eight horns, and are expected to appear in the Johannesburg Magistrate’s Court on July 5, for a report from the Department of Home Affairs.

It has been alleged that Lit’s and Khahn’s visas had expired on October 28, 2008, but they had entered the country on December 3, 2008. - Daily News

[Richprins]

The minister's reply states...along with numbers of poachers arrested...that the census of white rhino in Kruger should be taking place now if not shortly.

(And the total downgraded to a possible minimum of 9000 instead of the possible 15000 touted for years now.)

There will be no comprehensive census, perhaps not even the tiny statistical census, as far as I know...as helicopters are on antipoaching duty...

[iNdlovu]

Surely with the poaching crisis it is essential to know what our stock of Rhino is, or do we just go on thinking there are enough to go on thinking that because of Mabunda's statement that there is really no crisis until 2015
If they don't have the manpower, use the public

[H. erectus]

Does anyone have any idea of how many rhino
are left over to date???

[iNdlovu]

No H.e. not even Sanparks have an accurate figure. The one they toss around is very much inflated used to justify the sale of live rhino to China.

[H. erectus]

No H.e. not even Sanparks have an accurate figure

Is there any way in which ball park figures can be assessed as a matter of urgency???

[Sprocky]

I reckon OSCAP figures are the most accurate.

[H. erectus]

I reckon OSCAP figures are the most accurate.

Mind I ask, "so what are the left overs"??

[PennyinSA]

We were told that a count would be done during August. Whether or not we are given the correct information after this is done is a matter of conjecture. One thing is for sure we are not getting 100% true stats regarding the poaching so I doubt we would get the true picture regarding how many rhino are left. My guess is somewhere in the order of 9 000 but I could be wrong!