Africa Wild

Link here

https://static.pmg.org.za/SANPARKS-_ANN ... _FINAL.pdf

For white rhino the perceived drop from 4116 to 3549 can probably be explained by sampling errors in the counts and rhino relocations out of Kruger. On the figures given you can't dispute the claim that births are now equal to combined natural and poaching deaths.

Equally so, in the absence of any other informationn, you would not state that births are now equal to combined natural and poaching deaths.

I am pleased I am not a statistician having to explain this against the background of the dramatic fall in numbers over the past decade.

Richprins wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:11 pm From 2019/20 SANParks report, page 97:

The 2019 rhino estimates
for Kruger National Park stand at 268 black (95% CI: 191-342) and 3,549 white
(95% CI: 3 152-3 949) rhinos, with births equalling combined natural and poaching
deaths for the first time in five years

https://pmg.org.za/page/Annual%20Report ... 20-%202020

These numbers are not actual numbers but estimates, you have to understand what the numbers are:

2018: numbers between 2,994 and 5,726 (fictional number: 4,116)
2019: numbers between 3,152 and 3,949 (fictional number: 3,549)
It is possible that there is an increase of 1,000 rhino or a drop of 2,500 rhino.

Poached rhino 2019: 303 (detected carcasses only)

The decline in estimated white rhino numbers can be explained by
- reported poaching: about 8 % of the population is poached annually
- undetected poached carcasses (field carcass detection data indicates that around 20% of carcasses may go undetected in KNP)
- management removals
- changes in population growth rate (longer-term estimated maximum population growth rate for white rhino is around 8 or 9%): drought and other factors have an impact on calving and mortality rates even after a drought ended (Ferreira determined that the drought impacted on the KNP white rhino population by increasing natural mortalities and by reducing calving rates by around 4%, with the lag in the latter effect due to the white rhino’s 16-month gestation period. These two factors alone would account for a loss of almost 400 white rhino)
- sampling variability in block count estimation

Klipspringer wrote: ↑Thu Jan 28, 2021 12:38 pm It is possible that there is an increase of 1,000 rhino or a drop of 2,500 rhino

Looking at the change in population, a range of -2500 to +1000 is possible but not if you still want to use a 95% confidence level. It will be a lot narrower centered around a mean of -567.

Does anyone have an idea of how many rhino were removed from Kruger?

SANParks does not tell us everything

We have the number of black rhino removed from Addo, but only one relocations; there might have been more

There are some facts here: https://www.africawild-forum.com/viewto ... 197&t=9021 That is only what has been published.

They have the same estimates, variations, parameters and presumably offtakes every year, officially, so the figures are alarming even allowing for the variables. Note the 2018/19 figures/guesstimate.

To answer my own question

Sanparks 2020 report states that no rhino have been translocated from Kruger since December 2016 because of bTB.
Three white rhino orphan calves were removed to a rehab centre.

If one can believe them...

It is always the same question!

Shocking statistics reveal that Kruger rhino population has dropped by nearly 70% in ten years
By Tony Carnie• 28 January 2021


https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article ... ten-years/