GRNP Drought 2018
Posted: Tue Jul 24, 2018 11:21 am
Garden Route, Eastern Cape brace for dry spell as Cape dams continue to rise
2018-07-23 22:03
Melanie Gosling, Correspondent
The Garden Route and western part of the Eastern Cape are heading into a dry spell as forecasts show this coastal region is likely to get below normal rainfall during the usually wet spring.
The average dam level in the Western Cape crept up from 16% at the end of April to just over 50% on Monday, and the average level of dams supplying Cape Town rose marginally to 56.4%.
But the bad news is that the Garden Route – which suffered a crippling drought in 2017 and devastating runaway fires – is likely to get below average rainfall in September, October and November.
Cobus Olivier of the South African Weather Service said on Monday the seasonal forecast for the Garden Route and the western coastal strip of the Eastern Cape was "a cause for concern".
"This coastal area usually gets rainfall all year, but tends to have two peaks, one in autumn – March, April and May – and another in spring – September, October and November. Our seasonal forecast for the spring peak unfortunately shows the area could get below average rainfall.
"That is a concern, because the area has also been drought-stricken," Olivier said.
Low confidence forecasts for parts of Western Cape
However, the northern part of the Western Cape was forecast to get above average rainfall during August, September and October.
Olivier said the seasonal forecasts for both these areas were of "marginal confidence".
"That means they are not as good as the seasonal forecasts for the north-east part of the country, which is 85% accurate, but also not something that you would throw out of the window."
The seasonal forecasts for Cape Town and the western part of the province for the rest of winter were "not looking that good". However, Olivier said long-term forecasts for the western part of the Western Cape were of such low confidence, they meant very little.
"Cape Town and the western part of the province get most of their rainfall now in winter, but we can give no indication of whether the rest of the winter will have above or below average rainfall because the skills level of the forecasts for this area is so low," Olivier said.
Anton Bredell, Western Cape MEC for local government, environmental affairs and development planning, said on Monday while the winter rains had provided much needed relief in the drought-stricken province, it was too soon to ease up on water restrictions.
https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News ... e-20180723
2018-07-23 22:03
Melanie Gosling, Correspondent
The Garden Route and western part of the Eastern Cape are heading into a dry spell as forecasts show this coastal region is likely to get below normal rainfall during the usually wet spring.
The average dam level in the Western Cape crept up from 16% at the end of April to just over 50% on Monday, and the average level of dams supplying Cape Town rose marginally to 56.4%.
But the bad news is that the Garden Route – which suffered a crippling drought in 2017 and devastating runaway fires – is likely to get below average rainfall in September, October and November.
Cobus Olivier of the South African Weather Service said on Monday the seasonal forecast for the Garden Route and the western coastal strip of the Eastern Cape was "a cause for concern".
"This coastal area usually gets rainfall all year, but tends to have two peaks, one in autumn – March, April and May – and another in spring – September, October and November. Our seasonal forecast for the spring peak unfortunately shows the area could get below average rainfall.
"That is a concern, because the area has also been drought-stricken," Olivier said.
Low confidence forecasts for parts of Western Cape
However, the northern part of the Western Cape was forecast to get above average rainfall during August, September and October.
Olivier said the seasonal forecasts for both these areas were of "marginal confidence".
"That means they are not as good as the seasonal forecasts for the north-east part of the country, which is 85% accurate, but also not something that you would throw out of the window."
The seasonal forecasts for Cape Town and the western part of the province for the rest of winter were "not looking that good". However, Olivier said long-term forecasts for the western part of the Western Cape were of such low confidence, they meant very little.
"Cape Town and the western part of the province get most of their rainfall now in winter, but we can give no indication of whether the rest of the winter will have above or below average rainfall because the skills level of the forecasts for this area is so low," Olivier said.
Anton Bredell, Western Cape MEC for local government, environmental affairs and development planning, said on Monday while the winter rains had provided much needed relief in the drought-stricken province, it was too soon to ease up on water restrictions.
https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News ... e-20180723
