Rhino Poaching 2014

[Duke]

How many in Kruger Penga.

[nan]

Ho ! no

[Penga Ndlovu]

Those 2 were at Hoedspruit.

As far as we can tell it is 51 now Duke.
Reports are muddled.


71 now.

@ Hoopstad in the Freestate.

[PennyinSA]

72 now and I understood that Thornybush had treated all their rhino horn. I will make some enquiries to find out whether the rhino poached there was treated.

[Mel]

This is too vile for words...

Thanks for investigating, Penny.

[wynand]

Whose doing the poaching???

We had far less incidents when there were fewer people on patrol!!!

Aha.
You are starting to catch my drift now.

Oi! You two:
Sniping with cheap remarks like those does not achieve anything but sow mistrust. I play a very small role in all this but I do have regular interaction with the teams on the ground. Your remarks are an insult to many brave, loyal and capable men I've met.

Out of hundreds, a few bad apples have been identified and removed and certainly there will be more. Don't paint all of us with the same brush.

Have you forgotten, or have you ever known what it is like to engage in a close quarters firefight in the dark of night? Then, the next day, if victorious, thankful to be alive, having to deal with processes of law without the protection of martial law?

[okie]

Hmmmmm.... Whilst it is certainly agreed that the " ground-forces " and other involved people are loyal , and in many cases laying their lives on the line , it must also be understood that , with continued killings of rhino's , there could be a general perception amongst many people , that there is an apparent lack of progress in curbing/checking the poaching onslaught .
And , let’s be honest , the amount of information that is released to general public , and about what is happening on the poaching front , is almost totally non-existent . Apart from the DEA/Sanparks official reports on numbers of killings , the war on poaching almost gets no media coverage at all .
Statistics ( ? ) are shown , but without real accompanying explanations . And those are certainly not heartening or positive , with ever escalating numbers of killings , with declining numbers of arrests , and as such , is it then small wonder that a sense of distrust could start developing amongst the people of this country ?
And , you must start wondering why there is so little media coverage . Is it perhaps because there is a media clamp-down on the operations ? And if so , then why should there be a clamp-down ?
All it does , is to encourage speculation , about the why and wherefore and the reasons for the clamp-down .
For instance , let us now speculate about the number of poachers ( at ground-level ) are involved at any given time within Kruger .
Lets assume that a poaching unit consists of three guys , and lets say they have to travel on average 25/30 kilometers from the border ,and it takes them say 2 days to get to their chosen “ killing field “ . Now they have to find a rhino , and lets say it takes them another 3 days to find and choose a victim – they have now spent 5 days inside Kruger . Lets say that they kill it on the 6th day , and then make a run for the border , taking another day , eventually having spent 7 days inside the park .
Since there are at least two rhinos killed each and every day , it could mean that at any given time , there are at least 40 – 42 poachers inside the park . And you must wonder how it is that they are usually only caught AFTER the killing of the animals .
Hmmmm... I am aware that we should not really speculate , but , how feasible does this sound from merely using the unexplained figures that is periodically released .

[wynand]

I agree that accurate information with thorough analyses should be more forthcoming in order to deter uninformed critcism. I don't expect real-time running statistics as that could lead to inaccuracies and the disclosure of sensitive information. However, regular disclosures after a suitable lag would help to promote understanding of the problem.

I support the idea of watchdogs and I believe that criticism should be made where it is due.

But to suggest that an increase in patrols may be the cause of an increase in poaching is mischievous, and not even clever mischief. Plainly, there has been a rapid and sustained increase in poaching pressure and there has been a large escalation of counter measures. All figures are escalating: Rhino mortality, arrests and human deaths (on both sides). Now you cite lack of progress. How do you measure progress in an escalating war? If one looks at numbers of arrests and (this is probably hard to quantify and certainly not published:) the numbers of foiled poaching attempts, I would say that impressive "progress" is being made (why do you say "declining numbers of arrests"?).

The figures that are screaming at us, namely the numbers of rhino killed per annum, certainly do not speak of "success" or "progress" in one sense, because the tide is not being turned! But by casting suspicion on the forces that fight this terrible scourge one is making the error of discounting the mounting onslaught.

No need to speculate, like you do, about the number of insurgents present in the KNP. Gen. Jooste quotes a higher figure than you arrived at (in the piece quoted a few pages back): "15 heavily armed groups operate in the KNP at any given time..." "... They operate in groups of four to six...". So that makes about 75.

Now you say: "And you must wonder how it is that they are usually only caught AFTER the killing of the animals . "
Are you serious??
We're not talking 75 crooks in Disneyland. That's one group per 130 000 hectares or 1 person per 25 000 hectares. Have you ANY idea how difficult it is to smoke someone out against that background? Anyway, many (but not most) are caught or deterred before the shots are fired. I've witnessed that several times. Must one really wonder why it is easier to locate them after shots have been fired? Good grief! It is this sort of suspicion-mongering that gets my goat.

Don't let the watchdog become a whining puppy.

[Richprins]

Thanks, wynand, again!

Those on the ground are fine, and doing great work, IMO. However, others let them down, like the courts/jails, with the Mozambiquan Sambo being a prime example, being released from prison after what appears to be less than two of his five years' sentence...and getting straight back to work.

viewtopic.php?f=197&t=1461&start=420

Also a number of arrests of SP workers over the years, from game guards to security to traffic officials...nothing to do with Jooste's force.

The gangs rely heavily on inside cellphone sources in Kruger..almost impossible to prevent. This can be anyone from a worker at a private concession to a tourist to an SP worker, so "turnaround time" can be a day from Moz., especially during dry season. Cellphone reception is creeping ever Northwards on the Moz. side, certainly now far enough to cover up to Giriyondo and beyond.

This has been discussed here:

viewtopic.php?f=197&t=2423

[okie]

Wynand , allow me to comment .
Hmmmmm...... I did not mention , or suggest at all that increased patrols causes increased poaching , did I ?
Anyway , it is agreed that poaching has increased dramaticlally , but , unfortunately , it also appears that arrests have not increased at the same rate . Or , are we not informed correctly ?
In any war , the number of casualties that you inflict on your enemy is important , but if your own losses/casualties ( in this case rhinos lost ) , escalate faster than the losses sustained by the enemy , then my friend , to my mind , it certainly does not sound as if you are winning that war .
So , maybe I should rephrase my statement to rather say , “ there is an apparent declining success rate , as measured against the perceived escalating poaching activity .“
Because certainly , there is hugely increased activity by poachers , but maybe our own counter-efforts was not increased commensurately ?
You know , in order to win any war , then there are a few things you need , and usually it should be things that your enemy does not have .
The size of your army , training , equipment , mobility , are factors ( and certainly by no means the only factors ) which will eventually determine the outcome of a war .
But one very important factor required , is the WILL to win that war . If you only make half-hearted attempts in the battle , you will be lucky even in just containing it , never mind making positive progress .
Now , although this is a fight for survival of the rhino , it is still by no means an idealistic war , where combatants may from time to time decide that they have had enough , and go home to rest a while before coming back to resume battle .
In fact , this war is about money , where money is war , and where war is money . Nothing else ! Forget the so-called medicinal value of rhino-horn to an uninformed Chinese population . Those people are not interested in poaching , or how the powdered horn is obtained . If your doctor tells you that you need a certain drug to cure your ailment , then you pay for it as long as you can afford to do so .
I was of course quite conservative in my “ estimates “ of the insurgent numbers operating within KNP . That is quite interesting . Maybe even Gen Jooste is underestimating the numbers too ?
It is however also quite interesting that you say “ That's one group per 130 000 hectares or 1 person per 25 000 hectares. Have you ANY idea how difficult it is to smoke someone out against that background?”
Of course it is difficult to smoke someone out , no matter what size the background , but then also one should be realistic when you describe that background , and let’s consider what you say :
.
Now , as far as I understand , the rhinos in Kruger are mainly concentrated in the south , mainly south of the Olifants river – say an area around one third of Kruger ? In fact , the last rhino north of Letaba , was one which I think was called “ ore “ or something ? ( I have a photograph of him , taken close to Mopani camp in 2007/8 , shortly before he died of natural causes ) .
Any event , what I am saying is that certainly rhinos are not spread out over the whole 1,95 million hectares of Kruger , and as such I then fail to see how you can say 1 person per 25 000 hectares .
On the other hand , I do agree that whatever the area of “ engagement “ , it is very big , but let’s not try to make the job look bigger than what it really is .
A war is a war , and we have all agreed that this is a war . And there should not be any excuses in any war , because that is defeatist .
Let us not forget that a soldier is paid to do a job – like any other job , whether that job is standing behind a shop-counter , or whether that job entails putting his life at risk ( and , we are not talking of taking unnecessary risk ) .
We all have the utmost respect for any soldier who does his job to the best of his ability , but , to use your own analogy , we do not wish to listen to a whining puppy either .
And , although this might sound harsh , a soldier who does not have the belly for the fight , and who constantly whines about the odds stacked against him , is never going to win the battle . And he should not even be on the battlefield .